Movers

Momentum stocks from this week are still doing well and it pays of to buy new highs.
Today LUFK powers ahead, with RL, KYPH, AGP and VPHM following - all of them have excellent short and long term charts.

Headlines

London higher as investors recoup losses

Europe rallies after strong wallstreet session

Sterling hit 18 month low against the dollar

Oil volatile as traders assess London blasts

Business as usual

Markets have recovered from terror panic and most of the futures are trading near yesterdays levels with US index futures in the green. With risk of terrorism back in investors minds i doubt that equities can move substantial higher from this level in the near term - the next days will show.

...and recovers

Crude Oil plunges

Together with stock markets crude oil futures plunge in the premarket due to fears that terror attacks could be a damper for the economy

Terror Fears

An additional bus explosion in the city of London sends Bonds higher and stock markets lower.
September Bunds are trading above 124 already, USU5 @ 118-30, the DAX is down 150 points, the US$ is losing ground against all major currencies except to the British Pound.

Stopped out in FGBLU5 Short

Spooked by a London underground explosion European Bonds spiked and i was stopped out in my FGBLU5 short position at 123.27 for a loss of 42 points.

Hedge Funds gain in June

According to HFRX most of the Hedge Fund strategies were positve for June, but stay under water for the year.

	Daily - 06/30/2005				Jun	2004	2003
HFRX Index	DTD	MTD	YTD	Value *	ROR	TOTAL	TOTAL
Glob Hedge	-0.0083	0.9148	-1.7511	1116.85	0.91	2.69	13.39
Equal Weight	0.0478	0.4499	-1.8225	1094.87	0.45	2.73	11.32
Abs Return	0.0954	-0.1262	-2.9714	994.66	-0.13	3.20	11.95
Market Dirl	-0.0666	2.2908	-1.7663	1027.14	2.29	4.84	25.22
Conv Arb	0.0997	-0.0528	-8.3388	938.32	-0.05	-0.14	8.85
Dist Sec	0.3280	0.1876	-1.9198	1231.41	0.19	8.95	20.90
Equity Hedge	-0.0860	1.8468	-1.2436	1131.49	1.85	2.19	14.47
Equity MN	0.1770	-0.0848	0.6750	981.38	-0.08	0.33	-2.38
Event Driv	-0.0084	1.1407	-0.5349	1241.19	1.14	6.93	18.74
Macro Index	0.0067	0.5424	-2.4225	1086.84	0.54	-0.32	14.61
Merg Arb	-0.1150	0.7260	2.6856	1097.79	0.73	2.80	4.26
Rel Val	-0.0251	-0.6030	-2.2512	1065.53	-0.60	1.98	9.15

Barclay CTA index up in June

The Barclay Trading Group publishes CTA performances, too. After 1/3 of the CTAs having reported the Barclay CTA Index shows an estimated June performance of 1.03% and is down -2.26% for the year.

	June ROR†	Percentage of funds reporting†	YTD through June†
Barclay CTA Index	1.03%	37.89%	-2.26%
SUB INDICES
Agricultural Traders Index	0.00%	0.00%	2.03%
Currency Traders Index	1.02%	38.37%	-1.59%
Discretionary Traders Index	0.54%	25.32%	2.51%
Diversified Traders Index	0.95%	40.47%	-4.28%
Fin./Met. Traders Index	0.87%	30.00%	0.77%
Systematic Traders Index	1.13%	40.84%	-2.94%

CTAs - Monthly Flash

IASG has a large database of Commodity Trading Advisors. A lot of CTAs have already reported their June performance. Despite the early reporters are usually the ones with a good performance, you can take the figures as an indication, that for most of them June has been a month with above average gains offsetting some of the losses piled up in the last 12 months.

Commodity Markets Today

So what are the main movers on the futures markets today: we see a grain rally again, with SX5 up 40 ct above 720, WU5 and CU5 up 13 ct to 340 and 238, we see the expected follow through at the metals to the downside, PAU5 was already down at 170.2 today! Bonds are weak and energies strong with CLQ5 approaching the 60$ mark.

Parker Drilling

PKD has found the perfect channel.

ELOS, PAY

ELOS is taking out its 12/2004 high and looks like it could make another leg up.
You can buy PAY only because of its name or its chart.

Winner List

KEYW, AMTD, UNH seem as they would only go up! TS is a beauty, so is KOSP, which continous to make new highs and looks very strong.

Trade recommendation FGBLU5 short

The SARA System is short the FGBLU5 (Sep German Bund) at 122.85 with a stop at 123.72.
Stops are adjusted daily.

Tomorrows Comment Today

John Hussman's Weekly Market Comment.

This is what i mean

Tour de France

I hope i will have some time to watch the Tour de France this year. I am desperate to see one of these 6 hour mountain stages live on TV - to miss nothing i've already stocked up with DVDs.

Further gains for US$

As i write this, the EUR trades below 1.19, down from close to 1.36 back in March - so why should it stop here?

Country Indices - Europe tops US

Comparing the YTD performance of some equity indices around the globe, the excellent performance of (mainly) eastern european countries is obvious.
For example Hungary gained 23.14%, Czechia 19.45% and Poland 12.90%. Top performer in Central Europe is Austria with a gain of 27.12 YTD.
European indices are outperforming US indices by a big margin, the Eurostoxx50 index gained 8.72% compared to a loss of -1.44 of the S&P500 and -8.06 of the Nasdaq100.

Eastern European Index Futures can be traded on the OTOB, the Austrian Futures Exchange, but only with very low volume. It's also difficult to find a broker or bank with acceptable conditions but there are a lot of certificates and ETFs available.

My opinion is, that all these top performing indices are looking very stretched but with the current momentum in the back i will definetively stay back and avoid to call a top.