This is a blog about alternative investments, hedge funds, the stock market, portfolio management, risk management, commodities, trading systems, managed futures and investing in general.
Thursday, October 20, 2005
Watching Refco falling apart & Hedge Fund Maze
Refco having its ups and downs
A guide to the Hedge Fund Maze from Businessweek
Refco's painful lesson for investors
Hedge Funds get tangled with bad business cycle
Thursday, October 13, 2005
The Refco Scandal and Customer Funds

In the light of the recent events customers having accounts with Refco will remove substantial funds from the broker. This is what the National Futures Association says about segregation of customer funds from that of the firm.
More Refco news from Hedgeworld
Monday, October 03, 2005
When Stock Market Models Crash

cxoadvisory.com published a resarch study about Didier Sornette, Professor of Geophysics at UCLA, who forcasts a stock market crash since 2002, and who was serially wrong. (the picture above shows his latest prediction)
Thursday, September 22, 2005
Graham Stock Screen

39 stocks meet the criteria annual EPS Growth Rate >= 30 and P/E ratio <=10 at moneycentral.msn.com with STC leading the pack.
Annual EPS Growth Rate >= 30 | P/E Ratio: Current <= 10 |
DJ Utility Index testing support
EMini Biotech Futures start trading 9/26/05


The CME announced the start of the EMini Biotechnology Stock Index Futures effective 9/26/05. Traded on Globex, contract size is 50x the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index, which is a modified capitalization weighted index comprised of stocks that are classified as either pharmazeutical or biotechnology. Commodity code is BQ, Ticker Symbol BIO (Futures), BQX (undlying index)
Wednesday, September 21, 2005
Fed ups Fed Fund Rate to 3.75%

Stocks fell sharply after the Fed raised interest rates a quarter point to 3.75%--the 11th rise in 15 months.
(Tradingmarkets.com)
Hedge Fund News from HedgeWorld
NEW YORK (HedgeWorld.com)—The mutual fund company Rydex Investments has launched two new retail vehicles that promise to replicate the performance of certain hedge fund strategies but at lower cost to the investor.
TraderSource Starts FX Fund of Funds
NEW YORK (HedgeWorld.com)—The Harbourside Multi-Manager FX Fund (SICAV) plc from TraderSource Inc. will invest with foreign exchange managers in Europe and the United States.
RMF Creates ‘Three Pearls' Portfolio for German Institution
PFÄFFIKON, Switzerland (HedgeWorld.com)—RMF, an investment manager of Man Investments, announced Monday that it has placed a 150 million euro customized hedge fund portfolio with an unnamed German institutional client.
Monday, September 19, 2005
Election in Germany - DAX and EURO drop
Hedgeworld News

ISDA Protocol Aims to Ease Derivatives Trades Transfer
(Hedgeworld)
NFA Suspends CPO Manager: Adamant Vacationer
(Hedgeworld)
Short Sellers, Emerging Markets Funds, Lead CSFB/Tremont Index in August
(Hedgeworld)
Thursday, September 01, 2005
Friday, August 26, 2005
Possible collapse of the Bayou Group
Friday, August 19, 2005
Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates
August 2005
Date____1 mo 3 mo 6 mo 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 20 yr
08/01/05 3.30 3.48 3.73 3.83 4.04 4.09 4.16 4.22 4.32 4.59
08/02/05 3.35 3.49 3.73 3.84 4.06 4.10 4.17 4.24 4.34 4.62
08/03/05 3.34 3.46 3.72 3.82 4.02 4.07 4.13 4.20 4.30 4.58
08/04/05 3.34 3.47 3.72 3.83 4.04 4.09 4.15 4.22 4.32 4.60
08/05/05 3.35 3.52 3.75 3.87 4.11 4.16 4.24 4.30 4.40 4.66
08/08/05 3.38 3.54 3.82 3.93 4.16 4.22 4.28 4.34 4.42 4.68
08/09/05 3.37 3.52 3.79 3.90 4.13 4.19 4.25 4.31 4.41 4.66
08/10/05 3.38 3.51 3.78 3.90 4.13 4.18 4.24 4.30 4.40 4.65
08/11/05 3.31 3.51 3.78 3.89 4.10 4.14 4.18 4.24 4.32 4.60
08/12/05 3.32 3.52 3.79 3.88 4.05 4.08 4.11 4.16 4.24 4.52
08/15/05 3.28 3.54 3.82 3.91 4.08 4.11 4.15 4.20 4.27 4.53
08/16/05 3.32 3.54 3.80 3.88 4.03 4.06 4.10 4.15 4.23 4.49
08/17/05 3.31 3.52 3.80 3.89 4.07 4.10 4.15 4.20 4.28 4.53
08/18/05 3.30 3.50 3.78 3.86 4.01 4.04 4.08 4.13 4.21 4.48
www.ustreas.gov
Record 6527 registered Funds in Cayman Island
Second Lyxor Fund in Germany
Hedgeworld.com
Friday, July 15, 2005
Vega Asset Drop Approaches $1 Billion
Vega told investors that in the past month their portfolios were adversely affected by the yield of the U.S. 10-year Note dropping 30 basis points and the spread between the two-year maturity and 10-year maturity in the U.S. swap curve flattening. This happened while the spread between U.S. and Euroland 10-year maturity swap rates moved down to a negative 1.23% in the U.S. market.
CogentHedge on Fund Performance for First Half 2005

David Slavin, Managing Director of CogentHedge writes:
The first half of the year 2005 has been a roller-coaster ride for alternative investments. That may be good for amusement parks but most investors prefer something more consistent. Fortunately, for the year to date overall performance has been comfortably positive with all alternative investments in the CogentHedge database reporting results through June (currently 1700) showing an average gain of 1.625%.
Performance by investment strategy and sub-strategy is as varied as the policies and funds themselves. A quick review of the Cogent Dynamic Averages shows that Emerging Market Equity strategies are leading the pack - up +8.489% for the year - while the Convertible Arbitrage strategy remains the single worst-performing category for the year: down -6.797% through June. Convertible Arb funds are so far (with 48 reporting as of this moment) up +1% for the month of June. You may recall our analysis of this investment strategy in a prior newsletter.
Taken in aggregate, alternative investments have posted three positive months and three negative months so far this year. Results range from a high of 1.715% in June to a low of -1.444% in April. Rollercoaster, indeed!
The Cogent Dynamic Averages allow us to delve into these numbers. For instance, what is the range of reported June results by individual strategy? The largest standard deviations by investment strategy for the month of June 2005 are as follows:
Investment Strategy | Standard Deviation | % Change | # Reporting |
Options Strategies | 10.399% | 0.479% | 16 |
Currency Trading | 5.408% | 3.454% | 38 |
Futures Programs | 5.087% | 2.821% | 206 |
Emerging Markets Equity | 3.341% | 2.756 | 51 |
Global Macro | 3.257% | 1.463% | 89 |
All Funds | 2.935% | 1.632% | 1820 |
All Single Manager Funds | 3.146% | 1.720% | 1477 |
All Multi-Manager Funds | 1.598% | 1.132% | 339 |
Barclay Group & MARHedge cooperate
The Barclay Group and MARHedge Announce Database Distribution Agreement.
The Barclay Group and MARHedge, a subsidiary of Metal Bulletin plc, have reached an agreement in which MARHedge will publish, starting in September 2005, The Barclay Group's proprietary hedge fund and CTA performance data.
The Barclay Group, founded in 1985, is one of the industry's premier database companies and collects performance data from more than 4,500 hedge funds, funds of funds and CTAs worldwide.
Thursday, July 14, 2005
BOSC chased higher

BOSC is chased higher today and is up 100%. If you were lucky and early enough, there was a good dummy entry at 3.58.
Put Call Ratio no leading indicator
John W. Henry's June comment

Michel Covel published John W. Henry's June comment.
Its intersting how oppositional views can be: Reading the first paragraph of the commentary one could believe nearly all of the 11 programs managed be JWH are trading very well at present, while numbers of verious databases are showing a completely different picture with all but one strategy under water for the year.
The John W. Henry & Co Original Program currently suffers the worst drawdown in history with YTD -42.68%. Her is his performance table from IASG
Monthly Performance | |||||||||||||
JAN | FEB | MAR | APR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | OCT | NOV | DEC | YEAR | |
2005 | (19.00) | 0.59 | 3.88 | (25.11) | 5.01 | (13.88)E | (42.68) | ||||||
2004 | 8.01 | 14.11 | (2.94) | (9.24) | (7.85) | (15.05) | (1.29) | (0.10) | 10.22 | 22.25 | 5.25 | (16.09) | (0.26) |
2003 | 22.39 | 8.21 | (9.27) | 0.53 | 0.83 | (14.08) | 4.36 | 5.63 | (14.56) | (15.69) | 8.60 | 4.71 | (5.50) |
2002 | (0.04) | 0.02 | (9.20) | 1.81 | 5.11 | 14.73 | 10.74 | 6.30 | 11.08 | (7.82) | (8.10) | (1.59) | 21.50 |
2001 | (3.18) | (4.41) | 17.44 | (14.34) | 0.69 | (9.23) | (3.31) | 3.69 | 6.35 | 2.49 | (12.36) | 2.10 | (16.79) |
2000 | 5.96 | 1.44 | (4.90) | (6.68) | (5.13) | (2.73) | (3.31) | 5.37 | (10.15) | 1.57 | 17.29 | 7.74 | 3.43 |
1999 | (3.88) | 5.11 | (2.22) | 5.98 | (2.84) | 2.14 | (2.27) | 0.59 | (3.78) | (11.36) | 4.63 | (2.06) | (10.73) |
1998 | (1.30) | 2.22 | (4.10) | (0.52) | 4.41 | 1.68 | (3.97) | 3.96 | 2.65 | 5.21 | (12.82) | 15.37 | 10.81 |
1997 | 3.42 | 0.21 | 1.63 | 0.50 | 1.10 | (4.43) | 2.05 | (0.80) | (5.99) | 3.59 | 0.00 | 4.86 | 5.73 |
1996 | 5.28 | (7.35) | 1.02 | 3.84 | (6.48) | 7.99 | (4.36) | (2.33) | 8.24 | 10.37 | 5.19 | 1.11 | 22.65 |
1995 | 2.16 | 17.87 | 16.58 | 9.09 | (4.43) | 1.65 | (0.03) | (3.89) | (3.93) | 3.25 | 1.15 | 6.84 | 53.23 |
1994 | (2.95) | 1.53 | 4.36 | 0.21 | 5.53 | 6.64 | (7.15) | (4.73) | (2.83) | (14.11) | 10.21 | (0.04) | (5.68) |
1993 | (0.75) | 9.54 | (3.50) | 10.36 | 0.12 | (4.05) | 14.92 | (3.65) | 0.63 | (1.53) | 3.45 | 11.40 | 40.64 |
1992 | (6.12) | (8.79) | 0.72 | (0.84) | (4.46) | 8.27 | 9.09 | 9.12 | (2.75) | 2.24 | 3.61 | 2.19 | 10.86 |
1991 | (0.48) | 0.30 | (2.07) | (5.76) | 4.40 | (0.73) | (7.38) | (3.60) | 10.74 | (3.91) | (1.26) | 17.71 | 5.43 |
1990 | 7.12 | (2.04) | 18.42 | 12.37 | (10.93) | 7.17 | 10.94 | 19.11 | (2.12) | (1.90) | 0.98 | (2.32) | 66.82 |
1989 | 0.80 | (19.91) | 11.70 | (5.09) | 28.97 | (3.86) | 8.08 | (13.66) | (13.25) | (11.97) | 7.35 | 9.82 | (10.85) |
1988 | (6.90) | 4.65 | (16.05) | (5.10) | 3.60 | 13.90 | (19.80) | (4.30) | 6.35 | (2.45) | 1.64 | (12.53) | (35.16) |
1987 | 8.99 | 3.65 | 2.66 | 21.91 | 0.75 | (3.54) | 8.84 | (3.13) | (10.40) | 35.80 | 16.48 | 11.93 | 129.81 |
1986 | (4.39) | 22.22 | 15.44 | (5.83) | (2.78) | (2.13) | 11.51 | 7.19 | (2.86) | (10.25) | (1.94) | (2.98) | 19.83 |
1985 | 2.43 | 0.88 | (8.81) | (17.11) | 11.00 | 4.37 | 16.80 | 1.74 | (15.51) | 9.57 | 7.36 | 18.62 | 26.77 |
1984 | 5.53 | (4.81) | (7.54) | (2.09) | 16.55 | (10.30) | 28.69 | (9.03) | 15.98 | (5.24) | (2.18) | 12.54 | 34.66 |
1983 | 14.36 | (28.56) | 1.63 | 4.86 | 8.27 | (9.61) | 10.91 | 13.41 | (7.31) | (3.28) | (6.40) | (2.54) | (12.35) |
1982 | 7.11 | (16.85) | 2.71 | (8.52) |
An introduction into Trend Following can be found at turtletrader.com
Wednesday, July 13, 2005
Code for Hedge Funds
Tuesday, July 12, 2005
Todays Markets
Daytraders are pushing CAFE today sending it up 100%.
Monday, July 11, 2005
TS, HANS, VPHM

TS, HANS and VPHM continue to climb higher and will probably do so for ever.
Ex post the London blast sell off has been a perfect window of opportunity to go long. European stock indices are making new highs for the year.
In his June issue Bob Prechter called the current level in the S&P and other US indices a historical shorting opportunity...future will show.
James Mound's Commodity Review

James Mound writes a weekly commodity review every Friday and came up with a mid-year issue this time.
Friday, July 08, 2005
Movers

Momentum stocks from this week are still doing well and it pays of to buy new highs.
Today LUFK powers ahead, with RL, KYPH, AGP and VPHM following - all of them have excellent short and long term charts.
Headlines


London higher as investors recoup losses
Europe rallies after strong wallstreet session
Sterling hit 18 month low against the dollar
Oil volatile as traders assess London blasts
Thursday, July 07, 2005
Business as usual
Crude Oil plunges
Terror Fears
Stopped out in FGBLU5 Short
Wednesday, July 06, 2005
Hedge Funds gain in June
Daily - 06/30/2005 | Jun | 2004 | 2003 | |||||
HFRX Index | DTD | MTD | YTD | Value * | ROR | TOTAL | TOTAL | |
Glob Hedge | -0.0083 | 0.9148 | -1.7511 | 1116.85 | 0.91 | 2.69 | 13.39 | |
Equal Weight | 0.0478 | 0.4499 | -1.8225 | 1094.87 | 0.45 | 2.73 | 11.32 | |
Abs Return | 0.0954 | -0.1262 | -2.9714 | 994.66 | -0.13 | 3.20 | 11.95 | |
Market Dirl | -0.0666 | 2.2908 | -1.7663 | 1027.14 | 2.29 | 4.84 | 25.22 | |
Conv Arb | 0.0997 | -0.0528 | -8.3388 | 938.32 | -0.05 | -0.14 | 8.85 | |
Dist Sec | 0.3280 | 0.1876 | -1.9198 | 1231.41 | 0.19 | 8.95 | 20.90 | |
Equity Hedge | -0.0860 | 1.8468 | -1.2436 | 1131.49 | 1.85 | 2.19 | 14.47 | |
Equity MN | 0.1770 | -0.0848 | 0.6750 | 981.38 | -0.08 | 0.33 | -2.38 | |
Event Driv | -0.0084 | 1.1407 | -0.5349 | 1241.19 | 1.14 | 6.93 | 18.74 | |
Macro Index | 0.0067 | 0.5424 | -2.4225 | 1086.84 | 0.54 | -0.32 | 14.61 | |
Merg Arb | -0.1150 | 0.7260 | 2.6856 | 1097.79 | 0.73 | 2.80 | 4.26 | |
Rel Val | -0.0251 | -0.6030 | -2.2512 | 1065.53 | -0.60 | 1.98 | 9.15 |
Barclay CTA index up in June
| June ROR† | Percentage of funds reporting† | YTD through June† |
Barclay CTA Index | 1.03% | 37.89% | -2.26% |
SUB INDICES | |||
Agricultural Traders Index | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.03% |
Currency Traders Index | 1.02% | 38.37% | -1.59% |
Discretionary Traders Index | 0.54% | 25.32% | 2.51% |
Diversified Traders Index | 0.95% | 40.47% | -4.28% |
Fin./Met. Traders Index | 0.87% | 30.00% | 0.77% |
Systematic Traders Index | 1.13% | 40.84% | -2.94% |
CTAs - Monthly Flash
Tuesday, July 05, 2005
Commodity Markets Today
Winner List
Trade recommendation FGBLU5 short
Stops are adjusted daily.
Monday, July 04, 2005
Tour de France

I hope i will have some time to watch the Tour de France this year. I am desperate to see one of these 6 hour mountain stages live on TV - to miss nothing i've already stocked up with DVDs.
Further gains for US$
Country Indices - Europe tops US

Comparing the YTD performance of some equity indices around the globe, the excellent performance of (mainly) eastern european countries is obvious.
For example Hungary gained 23.14%, Czechia 19.45% and Poland 12.90%. Top performer in Central Europe is Austria with a gain of 27.12 YTD.
European indices are outperforming US indices by a big margin, the Eurostoxx50 index gained 8.72% compared to a loss of -1.44 of the S&P500 and -8.06 of the Nasdaq100.
Eastern European Index Futures can be traded on the OTOB, the Austrian Futures Exchange, but only with very low volume. It's also difficult to find a broker or bank with acceptable conditions but there are a lot of certificates and ETFs available.
My opinion is, that all these top performing indices are looking very stretched but with the current momentum in the back i will definetively stay back and avoid to call a top.
Friday, July 01, 2005
Weekend ahead
Futures Markets Today
Friday, April 29, 2005
Hedge Funds and Managed Futures
In its "Benefits of" series the Center of International Securities and Derivatives Markets provides an analysis of risk and return benefits of Hedge funds and Managed Futures when considered as part of an investor's overall portfolio. The risk and return performance of portfolios constructed from adding alternative investments to established U.S. stock and bond portfolios are evaluated.